Sports Analytics Basics
Public narrative versus the scoreboard
A headline picks a hero. A scoreboard keeps a count. Drama is a weak sample, and sneering at the drama is not an edge either.
Tag
sports stats
9 posts tagged "sports stats".
Sports Analytics Basics
Close games and why one play warps the story
A one-score game can turn on a bounce or a call. The margin is real, and the lesson people draw from it is usually too big.
Sports Analytics Basics
Why one game is a weak sample of a season
One game can decide a series and still be a weak measure of a team. Fame and detail do not turn a single night into a season.
Sports Analytics Basics
Weather and wind: a cautious read of totals
Wind and weather can change a game and still be a weak reason to trust a total. A forecast is not a price, and it moves.
Sports Analytics Basics
Run differential and rough win estimates
Run differential sketches a baseball season better than wins alone. A checked example shows the estimate, and its limits.
Sports Analytics Basics
Win streaks: record, luck and small samples
A win streak is a short, selected sample. It mixes skill, schedule and luck, and it does not schedule the next result.
Sports Analytics Basics
How to read a team's pace without overclaiming
Pace is how many chances a game creates. It is not the same as quality, and one box score is a noisy way to read it.
Sports Analytics Basics
Rest and travel: what a box score leaves out
Rest, travel and short weeks change how a team looks. A box score records the game, not the fatigue behind it.
Sports Analytics Basics
What strength of schedule does and does not show
A win-loss record depends on the opponents. Strength of schedule is a clue, not a verdict or a betting angle.