Sports Analytics Basics
How overtime and extra innings change a sample
Overtime adds plays to the same game, not a second sample of team quality. Rules differ by league, and one long night stays one night.
Sports Analytics Basics
Sports Analytics Basics
Public narrative versus the scoreboard
A headline picks a hero. A scoreboard keeps a count. Drama is a weak sample, and sneering at the drama is not an edge either.
Sports Analytics Basics
Close games and why one play warps the story
A one-score game can turn on a bounce or a call. The margin is real, and the lesson people draw from it is usually too big.
Sports Analytics Basics
Why one game is a weak sample of a season
One game can decide a series and still be a weak measure of a team. Fame and detail do not turn a single night into a season.
Sports Analytics Basics
Weather and wind: a cautious read of totals
Wind and weather can change a game and still be a weak reason to trust a total. A forecast is not a price, and it moves.
Sports Analytics Basics
Run differential and rough win estimates
Run differential sketches a baseball season better than wins alone. A checked example shows the estimate, and its limits.
Sports Analytics Basics
Win streaks: record, luck and small samples
A win streak is a short, selected sample. It mixes skill, schedule and luck, and it does not schedule the next result.
Sports Analytics Basics
Injury reports and the uncertainty they leave
Injury labels are not probabilities. They add uncertainty to one game, and public news is often already in the price.
Sports Analytics Basics
How to read a team's pace without overclaiming
Pace is how many chances a game creates. It is not the same as quality, and one box score is a noisy way to read it.
Sports Analytics Basics
Rest and travel: what a box score leaves out
Rest, travel and short weeks change how a team looks. A box score records the game, not the fatigue behind it.
Sports Analytics Basics
What strength of schedule does and does not show
A win-loss record depends on the opponents. Strength of schedule is a clue, not a verdict or a betting angle.
Sports Analytics Basics
Point spreads, moneylines and totals compared
Point spreads, moneylines and totals ask different questions about one game. A neutral comparison of the three formats.