Odds and Probability
Counting the ways an outcome can happen
Three fair coin tosses make eight patterns. Exactly two heads is three of them, or 3/8, not a specific order and not a system.
Tag
probability
11 posts tagged "probability".
Odds and Probability
Mutually exclusive events and the addition rule
Mutually exclusive events can be added. Overlapping events cannot, unless you subtract the double count. A die shows both cases.
Odds and Probability
Coin-flip streaks and what they do not prove
Five heads in a specified row is 1 in 32 on a fair coin. The run does not schedule the next toss or prove a system.
Game Rules
How keno draws work and why the odds drop
Keno matches your numbers to a draw, often 20 out of 80. Here is the basic chance, and why the pay table is the real price.
Odds and Probability
Combinations and permutations with cards
Permutations count order. Combinations do not. A card-counting lesson in the arithmetic sense, with the poker-hand figure checked.
Odds and Probability
Variance: why results swing before they settle
Variance is the spread around an average. It explains wild sessions without turning a streak into a prediction.
Odds and Probability
The law of large numbers without jargon
The law of large numbers says averages settle. It does not say the next result will cancel the last one.
Odds and Probability
What independent events actually mean
Independent events do not remember the past. See what that means for coins, dice and cards, and what it does not mean.
Game Rules
A short history of dice and playing cards
From ancient knucklebones to the 52-card deck, a short tour of how dice and cards spread across the world and helped give birth to probability theory.
Odds and Probability
Implied probability and the bookmaker margin
Convert prices into implied probabilities, see why they add up to more than 100%, and learn how to strip the margin out to get a fairer estimate.
Odds and Probability
Expected value in plain English
Expected value tells you what a choice is worth on average. See how to calculate it with simple dice, lottery and roulette examples.