Sports Analytics Basics
Close games and why one play warps the story
A one-score game can turn on a bounce or a call. The margin is real, and the lesson people draw from it is usually too big.
Tag
luck
4 posts tagged "luck".
Sports Analytics Basics
Run differential and rough win estimates
Run differential sketches a baseball season better than wins alone. A checked example shows the estimate, and its limits.
Sports Analytics Basics
Win streaks: record, luck and small samples
A win streak is a short, selected sample. It mixes skill, schedule and luck, and it does not schedule the next result.
Odds and Probability
Variance: why results swing before they settle
Variance is the spread around an average. It explains wild sessions without turning a streak into a prediction.