Odds and Probability
Implied probability and the bookmaker margin
Convert prices into implied probabilities, see why they add up to more than 100%, and learn how to strip the margin out to get a fairer estimate.
Odds and Probability · Page 2
Odds and Probability
Expected value in plain English
Expected value tells you what a choice is worth on average. See how to calculate it with simple dice, lottery and roulette examples.
Odds and Probability
The gambler's fallacy explained
Why a long run of one outcome does not make the opposite 'due', with coin and roulette examples that show how independent events really work.
Odds and Probability
How to read American, decimal and fractional odds
A plain-English guide to the three common odds formats, how to convert between them, and how each one translates into an implied probability.